Sabah state election 2020
Sabah's snap state election of 26 September 2020 followed a dispute over majority support in the Warisan-led state government and the subsequent dissolution of the assembly. It produced a new federal-aligned coalition called Gabungan Rakyat Sabah and was held in the middle of the COVID-19 pandemic.
what happened
Sabah went to the polls on 26 September 2020 because its assembly had been dissolved two months earlier. On 29 July 2020 former Chief Minister Musa Aman announced that defections from the Warisan-led coalition had given him a majority, and said the next day that he held statutory declarations from 33 assemblymen. Chief Minister Shafie Apdal wrote to the Yang di-Pertua Negeri the same day Musa made his announcement, asking for a dissolution, and the assembly was dissolved on 30 July. Shafie said he still commanded a majority when he made the request; Musa said his own claim came only after the dissolution was announced. Musa took the matter to court, and on 8 September 2020 the Court of Appeal dismissed his appeal, holding that the Head of State had exercised his discretion under the Sabah Constitution and that the dissolution could not be reviewed.
The election that followed was the largest contest in the state's history: 447 candidates, 56 of them independents, for 73 seats — up from 60 at the previous election. Warisan Plus, grouping Warisan, DAP, Amanah, PKR and UPKO under Shafie, faced Gabungan Rakyat Sabah, an umbrella of Barisan Nasional, Perikatan Nasional and Parti Bersatu Sabah assembled on the eve of nomination day. GRS entered the campaign without a declared chief minister candidate and with its components overlapping in a number of seats. Campaigning was subject to health protocols and included small-group outreach, but both GRS and DAP also held sizeable final *ceramah* events.
The Election Commission declared results late on polling night: GRS 38 seats, Warisan Plus 32, independents 3. EC chairman Abdul Ghani Salleh announced turnout of 66.61 per cent the following day, though Anantha Raman Govindasamy's ISEAS study records a slightly lower figure. The popular vote was close to even, with Warisan Plus marginally ahead of GRS while winning fewer seats. Shafie held his own seat comfortably; Hajiji Noor won Sulaman; Musa Aman, who was not given a seat, campaigned for GRS instead. No chief minister was named on election night, and GRS partners were still negotiating in the early hours of 27 September. Hajiji Noor was eventually chosen, with UMNO's Bung Mokhtar Radin — the party's own candidate for the post — made a deputy chief minister with the Works portfolio.
For federal politics the outcome mattered because the coalition that formed after the February 2020 change of federal government had just won a state it had not held. Muhyiddin Yassin, who had campaigned repeatedly in Sabah, welcomed the result and promised federal support. Govindasamy's assessment in November 2020 was that the election had not produced a stable state government, pointing to the chief ministership dispute and continuing UMNO-BERSATU rivalry, and noting that Warisan remained the single largest party in the assembly.
The pandemic consequences were argued over almost immediately. On 6 October 2020 Muhyiddin said in a televised address that campaigning in Sabah was among the reasons for a spike in cases, on a day of 691 new national cases, while in the same address also pointing to undocumented entry through Sabah and to prison clusters elsewhere. Several politicians who had campaigned in the state tested positive in the following weeks, including a federal minister who had attended a National Security Council meeting after returning. Noor Hisham Abdullah declared a third wave on 8 October. His own public explanations diverged from the Prime Minister's: he denied on 1 October that the ministry had responded late, and on 21 October attributed Sabah's difficulties mainly to gaps in awareness and to patients avoiding hospitalisation, without naming the election. The academic Sharifa Ezat Wan Puteh pointed to general non-compliance with health protocols. No epidemiological study separating these factors was found.
the working
What the sources say
established
Hajiji Noor was sworn in as Sabah Chief Minister on 29 September 2020; public reporting states that GRS unanimously named him.
uncertain
The Election Commission’s accessible Sabah 2020 statement provides official aggregate totals, but no directly retrievable EC seat-by-seat dashboard record has been located; detailed results should be distinguished from the official aggregate statement.
Election Commission — full Sabah 2020 voting statement · Bernama’s Sabah 2020 seat interface
adjudicated
The Federal Court heard Musa Aman’s application for leave to appeal in August 2020 and granted leave.
established
A peer-reviewed synthetic-control study estimated that the Sabah election’s direct effect accounted for 70.0% of post-election reported cases in Sabah and its spill-over effect for 64.4% of post-election cases in the rest of Malaysia; these are model estimates, not a measure assigning blame to any single campaign activity or traveller.
PLOS Computational Biology · Ministry of Health annual report
established
The Election Commission published complete constituency-level results, including parties and independent candidates, but not a combined total for votes outside two main blocs.
established
On 29 July 2020 former Chief Minister Musa Aman declared that he commanded majority support in the Sabah State Legislative Assembly following defections from the Warisan-led coalition, and the following day he said he held statutory declarations from 33 assemblymen.
Anantha Raman Govindasamy · Shafie Apdal insists Sabah dissolution was by the book
established
Chief Minister Shafie Apdal wrote to the Yang di-Pertua Negeri, Juhar Mahiruddin, on 29 July 2020 requesting a dissolution of the state assembly, and the assembly was dissolved on 30 July 2020.
Shafie Apdal insists Sabah dissolution was by the book · Arnold Puyok
adjudicated
Musa Aman brought court proceedings challenging the dissolution; on 8 September 2020 the Court of Appeal unanimously dismissed his appeal, holding that the Yang di-Pertua Negeri had exercised his discretion under the Sabah Constitution and that the dissolution was not amenable to judicial review.
Court dismisses Musa Aman's appeal to review Sabah assembly dissolution · ISEAS Perspective 2020/131
established
The Election Commission fixed 12 September 2020 as nomination day and 26 September 2020 as polling day.
established
The assembly's elected seats had been increased from 60 to 73, and 447 candidates, including 56 independents, contested the 73 seats — the largest field in the state's history.
established
The two main blocs were Warisan Plus (Warisan, DAP, Amanah, PKR and UPKO), led by Shafie Apdal, and Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS), an umbrella of Barisan Nasional, Perikatan Nasional and Parti Bersatu Sabah formed on the eve of nomination day.
ISEAS Perspective 2020/131 · Official results: GRS wins Sabah polls with 38 seats
established
GRS did not name a chief minister candidate before polling day, and its component parties overlapped in a number of seats: BN contested 41 seats, PN 29, and PBS 22, of which 17 clashed with other GRS members.
established
Campaigning was conducted under COVID-19 standard operating procedures and included small-group outreach, but campaigners also held *ceramah*: one GRS finale drew about 500 supporters and a DAP event about 350.
established
The Election Commission declared the results of all 73 seats late on 26 September 2020: GRS 38 seats, Warisan Plus 32, independents 3.
contested
Within GRS the seats broke down as Perikatan Nasional 17, Barisan Nasional 14 and PBS 7; within Warisan Plus as Warisan 29, PKR 2 and UPKO 1.
Election Commission official tally as reported in Sabah Election 2020: Official final tally — GRS secures 38 seats to Warisan's 32 · Official results: GRS wins Sabah polls with 38 seats
established
Election Commission chairman Abdul Ghani Salleh announced on 27 September 2020 a final turnout of 66.61 per cent, or 749,083 of about 1.12 million registered voters, and said no untoward incidents had affected the voting process.
established
In popular-vote terms Warisan Plus narrowly led GRS, with 43.42 per cent (317,541 votes) against 43.22 per cent (316,049 votes), while GRS won more seats.
established
Shafie Apdal retained his Senallang seat with a majority of 4,631 votes, and BERSATU Sabah chairman Hajiji Noor won Sulaman with a majority of 3,099 votes; Musa Aman was not allocated a seat and campaigned for GRS candidates instead.
established
No chief minister was announced on election night; GRS coalition partners were still negotiating in Kota Kinabalu in the early hours of 27 September 2020.
LIVE: Battle for Sabah · Sabah election 2020: Muhyiddin thanks voters for placing trust in GRS
established
Hajiji Noor of BERSATU was chosen as Chief Minister, with UMNO's Bung Mokhtar Radin — whom UMNO had put forward for the post — made Deputy Chief Minister and given the Works portfolio, alongside Jeffrey Kitingan (STAR) and Joachim Gunsalam (PBS) as further deputies.
established
Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin, who had campaigned repeatedly in Sabah during the campaign period, welcomed the GRS result in a national address on 27 September 2020 and pledged federal support for the incoming state government.
Sabah election 2020: Muhyiddin thanks voters for placing trust in GRS · ISEAS Perspective 2020/131
established
In a televised address on 6 October 2020, Muhyiddin Yassin said: "I admit the campaigning for Sabah elections is among the reasons for the recent spike of cases," on a day Malaysia recorded 691 new cases, 219 of them from red zones in Sabah.
PM concedes Sabah state poll campaigning among reasons behind recent Covid-19 spike · Coronavirus Malaysia: PM blames Sabah election as among causes of huge infection surge
established
Several federal and state politicians who had campaigned in Sabah subsequently tested positive, including Religious Affairs Minister Zulkifli Mohamad al-Bakri, who returned from Sabah on 24 September 2020, attended a National Security Council meeting on 3 October with the Prime Minister and Health Minister, and tested positive by 5 October 2020.
Minister Contracts Covid · PM concedes Sabah state poll campaigning among reasons behind recent Covid-19 spike
established
Health Director-General Noor Hisham Abdullah stated on 8 October 2020 that Malaysia had entered a third wave of COVID-19; Sabah continued to record the highest daily case counts nationally, with 535 new cases in the state on 21 October 2020.
Nile Bowie · Dr Noor Hisham: Lack of education and understanding part of Sabah's Covid-19 problem
where accounts differ
The parts nobody agrees on
uncertain
The official turnout figure is reported inconsistently. The Election Commission chairman gave 66.61 per cent (749,083 voters) on 27 September 2020, a figure ElectionData.MY also carries; Anantha Raman Govindasamy, citing Daily Express Sabah, reports 66.28 per cent (745,387 voters).
Sabah election voter turnout just under 67% · SE-14 (Sabah) · ISEAS Perspective 2020/131
contested
Whether Musa Aman actually held a majority on 29-30 July 2020 was disputed at the time. Musa said he had statutory declarations from 33 assemblymen; Shafie Apdal said he still had majority support when he requested the dissolution, pointing to 32 assemblymen present at his press conference, and said Musa's claim came only after the dissolution was announced.
adjudicated
Whether the dissolution was properly advised was litigated. Musa Aman's counsel argued the Yang di-Pertua Negeri had been improperly advised; the Court of Appeal held on 8 September 2020 that the Head of State had absolute discretion and that the decision was not open to judicial review.
Court dismisses Musa Aman's appeal to review Sabah assembly dissolution · ISEAS Perspective 2020/131
contested
Explanations for GRS's win differ. Anantha Raman Govindasamy attributes it to GRS's strength in West Coast Muslim-Bumiputra and interior non-Muslim Bumiputra seats, Muhyiddin's frequent campaign visits promising development funds, Warisan Plus's failure to persuade non-Muslim Bumiputra voters on the issue of illegal immigrants, and low turnout among Warisan-leaning Sabahans working outside the state who faced travel restrictions.
contested
Govindasamy also records a competing reading within the KDM community, describing PBS and STAR gains as reflecting what he calls "anti-Shafie" sentiment, and notes that in the same election DAP won six of the seven seats it contested under the Warisan banner in urban Chinese-majority areas — an outcome he treats as running in the opposite direction.
alleged
The extent to which the election campaign caused the subsequent COVID-19 wave is asserted by named officials rather than settled. Muhyiddin Yassin said on 6 October 2020 that campaigning was "among the reasons" for the spike, naming failures of physical distancing and mask use, while in the same address attributing the national rise partly to undocumented entry through Sabah and to prison clusters in Kedah.
PM concedes Sabah state poll campaigning among reasons behind recent Covid-19 spike · Coronavirus Malaysia: PM blames Sabah election as among causes of huge infection surge
contested
Health officials offered partly different accounts. Noor Hisham Abdullah denied on 1 October 2020 that the Health Ministry had been late in responding in Sabah, saying interventions including market closures and border tightening were carried out earlier; on 21 October 2020 he attributed the state's difficulties chiefly to gaps in public awareness and education and to patients avoiding hospitalisation, without naming the election as a cause. Public health academic Sharifa Ezat Wan Puteh said the majority of cases were due to lax attitudes towards standard operating procedures.
Covid-19: DG denies Health Ministry late in responding to Sabah situation · Dr Noor Hisham: Lack of education and understanding part of Sabah's Covid-19 problem · Nile Bowie
contested
Whether the new GRS state government would prove stable was openly questioned at the time. Govindasamy wrote in November 2020 that the election "failed to deliver a stable state government," citing the sidelining of UMNO's preferred chief minister candidate and continuing UMNO-BERSATU rivalry; he also noted that Warisan remained the single largest party in the assembly.
still being researched
- What were the terms of the GRS agreement under which Hajiji Noor, rather than Bung Mokhtar Radin, was selected as Chief Minister?
- What combined total did smaller parties and independents receive outside the two main blocs, using stated bloc definitions and a seat-level reconciliation?