Green Wave / Gelombang Hijau
This page covers the sharp increase in seats won by PAS and its Perikatan Nasional partners at the November 2022 general election, the label commentators attached to it, and the competing explanations analysts have offered for why it happened.
What happened
On 19 November 2022 Malaysians voted in the country's 15th general election, and the following day the Election Commission chairman confirmed that no coalition held a simple majority in the 222-seat Dewan Rakyat.
The seats finished as follows:
- Pakatan Harapan
- 82 seats
- Perikatan Nasional
- 74 seats
- Barisan Nasional
- 30 seats
- Borneo coalitions and smaller parties
- the rest
The figure that drew most attention was PAS's: 49 seats, more than any other single party and nearly double UMNO's 26. Analysts describe it as the party's strongest parliamentary result since its founding in 1951.
The geography was stark. Perikatan Nasional took every parliamentary seat in Perlis, Kelantan and Terengganu, and all but one in Kedah. Commentators quickly reached for a label — "green wave", or gelombang hijau, after PAS's party colour — and it was circulating in published commentary within about a week of the vote. It is a term used by observers, and one that some analysts reject.
Federally, the immediate consequence was a negotiated government rather than a PN one. Anwar Ibrahim was sworn in as the tenth Prime Minister at Istana Negara on 24 November 2022, after the Yang di-Pertuan Agong consulted the Malay Rulers and called for a unity government. Perikatan Nasional stayed out and became the main opposition bloc with PAS as its largest component.
When six states voted in August 2023, no state changed hands, though PAS took the large majority of PN's state seats and PN's margins in Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu grew. Later state elections altered that picture: in July 2026 BN won 48 of Johor's 56 seats while PH won eight and PN none; in Negeri Sembilan the following month BN won 18 seats, PH 11 and PN seven.
Why the shift happened is genuinely disputed, and the disagreement runs between named analysts rather than between facts.
- Ong Kian Ming
- calls "green wave" lazy shorthand and points instead to Bersatu's gains outside PAS territory, UMNO's collapse across the peninsula, PN's social-media campaigning, and PN's failure to make headway in Sabah and Sarawak.
- Serina Rahman
- reads it as the surfacing of a decades-long change in how Islam is practised publicly in Malaysia, combined with candidates seen as clean.
- Kevin Zhang and Joshua Zi Wei Wan
- emphasise UMNO's corruption problem and the tactical value of the PAS-Bersatu alliance.
- Tan Sing Pei
- stresses TikTok outreach and long-built grassroots machinery.
- Iman Research
- stresses Pakatan Harapan's thin presence on the East Coast and PN's reach among first-time voters.
- Bridget Welsh
- cautions that PN's youth gains have been overstated.
- PAS
- its own December 2022 statement instead linked increased support to its Islamic political identity and asserted strong Malay-Muslim support for PN.
These are competing accounts; this page does not adjudicate between them.
One caution belongs with any reading of the numbers: ethnic vote-share figures that circulate — such as PN taking roughly 54 per cent of the peninsular Malay electorate — are estimates modelled from constituency results, because the ballot does not record ethnicity.
What the sources say
The result
Malaysia's 15th general election (GE15) was held on 19 November 2022, and produced a parliament in which no coalition held a simple majority of the 222 Dewan Rakyat seats — the Election Commission chairman confirmed this the following day.
Election Commission chairman statement as reported in EC chairman: No party has simple majority to form ParliamentGE-15 results tables
By coalition, the compiled official results were Pakatan Harapan 82 seats, Perikatan Nasional 74, Barisan Nasional 30, Gabungan Parti Sarawak 23, Gabungan Rakyat Sabah 6, Warisan 3, and 2 independents.
PAS won 49 parliamentary seats, making it the single largest party in the Dewan Rakyat, ahead of UMNO's 26.
Kevin Zhang (ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute) and Joshua Zi Wei Wan (Columbia University)Serina Rahman (ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute)
PAS won 18 parliamentary seats at GE14 in 2018, so its GE15 total was an increase of 31 seats.
Analysts describe the 49 seats as PAS's best parliamentary result since the party's founding in 1951.
Perikatan Nasional won every parliamentary seat in Perlis, Kelantan and Terengganu, and all but one in Kedah.
Perikatan Nasional finished second in seats but third in votes: Pakatan Harapan took about 38.0 per cent of the popular vote, PN about 30.2 per cent and Barisan Nasional about 22.2 per cent, so BN polled fewer seats on a smaller seat-to-vote conversion.
National turnout fell from about 82 per cent at GE14 to about 74 per cent at GE15, with the smallest decline among Malay voters and the largest among Chinese voters, according to Bridget Welsh's constituency-level analysis.
The label
"Green wave" / "gelombang hijau" (also "green tsunami" / "tsunami hijau") is a characterisation used by commentators and journalists after the result; green is PAS's party colour.
The label was in circulation in commentary within days of the 19 November 2022 vote.
What followed federally
24 November 2022
Anwar Ibrahim was sworn in as Malaysia's tenth Prime Minister before the Yang di-Pertuan Agong at Istana Negara on 24 November 2022, after the Agong consulted the Malay Rulers and called for a unity government.
Perikatan Nasional did not join that government and became the principal opposition bloc, with PAS as its largest component.
12 August 2023
At the six state elections held on 12 August 2023, no state changed hands: PN retained Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu, and the PH-BN side retained Selangor, Penang and Negeri Sembilan.
2023 State Polls: Status quo in all six statesThe biggest winners and losers in the 6 state polls
PAS won the large majority of the state seats taken by PN in those 2023 polls — reported as 105 of 146 — and PN increased its majorities in Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu.
11 July 2026
At Johor's state election on 11 July 2026, BN won 48 of 56 seats and PH won the other eight; PN won none.
Election Commission result announced by SPR chairman Ramlan Harun
1 August 2026
At Negeri Sembilan's state election on 1 August 2026, BN won 18 of 36 seats, PH 11 and PN seven.
Election Commission result announced by SPR chairman Ramlan Harun
Where accounts differ
Whether "green wave" is an accurate description at all is disputed. Ong Kian Ming argues the term is "lazy shorthand" that misses electoral complexity, attributing PN's rise substantially to Bersatu's gains outside PAS heartlands, UMNO's peninsular collapse, and PN's social-media campaigning rather than to a religious swing alone; he also notes PN made little headway in Sabah and Sarawak, which together hold about a quarter of parliamentary seats.
Serina Rahman argues the shift was a long-running one, reflecting a decades-long move of Islamic practice in Malaysia "from the private sphere into a very public one" since the 1980s, combined with PAS fielding candidates seen as religious and clean, and household-level influence by women voters.
Kevin Zhang and Joshua Zi Wei Wan attribute the outcome largely to UMNO's loss of credibility over corruption cases and to PAS's alliance with Bersatu, which they say let PAS compensate for historical deficits in Malay-nationalist credentials while campaigning outside its strongholds on economic and anti-corruption themes rather than on syariah.
Tan Sing Pei attributes the result to PAS's TikTok-based outreach to young voters, its grassroots and religious-network machinery built since the 1980s, and PN's positioning as an alternative for Malay voters disillusioned with both UMNO and Pakatan Harapan.
Iman Research argues the gains were built steadily since GE14 and came from Pakatan Harapan's thin organisational presence on the East Coast and in the north, plus PN's success with first-time Malay-Muslim voters; the same study says at least ten parties campaigned on Malay-nationalist themes, shifting the overall discourse.
Hadi Awang's son publicly credited TikTok for PAS's performance, as Malay Mail reported. Whether TikTok caused the result is uncertain: the statement is an interested party's account, not a measured finding.
PAS's own account differed from the analysts' explanations: in a December 2022 statement, its president linked increased PAS support to what he called the party's Islamic political identity and said PN had received 60 per cent support among Malay-Muslim voters. These are PAS's characterisations, not official demographic results.
Whether newly enrolled young voters were decisive is disputed. Bridget Welsh's analysis argues PN's gains among youth have been overstated and that Pakatan Harapan retained considerable support among the youngest cohort, while Iman Research and Tan Sing Pei place first-time voters closer to the centre of PN's gains.
The role of tahfiz schools as a PAS mobilising network is disputed: Tan Sing Pei lists them among PAS's institutional strengths, while Ong Kian Ming dismisses the theory on the grounds that tahfiz enrolment is under one per cent of students.
Estimates that PN captured roughly 54 per cent of the Malay electorate in Peninsular Malaysia are modelled figures derived from constituency results, not official data — Malaysia's ballot does not record voter ethnicity.
Whether the 2023 state elections showed the trend continuing or plateauing was read differently at the time: Free Malaysia Today reported the pattern as showing "no signs of letting up," while ISEAS analysis by Ong Kian Ming had framed the polls in terms of projections from GE15 baselines and the status quo held in all six states. The 2026 Johor and Negeri Sembilan results above mean that this is not a description of the current state-level picture.
Common questions
What was Malaysia's green wave in GE15?
The “green wave” or gelombang hijau was the label commentators and journalists used after GE15 for the sharp rise in PAS and Perikatan Nasional seats; green is PAS’s party colour. PAS won 49 parliamentary seats, its strongest parliamentary result since the party’s founding in 1951, while PN won every parliamentary seat in Perlis, Kelantan and Terengganu and all but one in Kedah.
Did PAS win the most seats in GE15?
PAS won the most seats of any single party, with 49 parliamentary seats. That was more than UMNO’s 26 seats, but PAS was part of Perikatan Nasional rather than a standalone government: PN won 74 seats as a coalition, behind Pakatan Harapan’s 82.
Kevin Zhang (ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute) and Joshua Zi Wei Wan (Columbia University)GE-15 seat distribution
Why was there no clear winner after GE15?
There was no clear winner because no coalition held a simple majority of the 222 Dewan Rakyat seats after the 19 November 2022 election. Pakatan Harapan had 82 seats, Perikatan Nasional 74 and Barisan Nasional 30, with the remaining seats held by Borneo coalitions, Warisan and independents.
Election Commission chairman statement as reported in EC chairman: No party has simple majority to form ParliamentGE-15 seat distribution
Did PN form the federal government after GE15?
No. Anwar Ibrahim was sworn in as Malaysia’s tenth Prime Minister on 24 November 2022 after the Yang di-Pertuan Agong consulted the Malay Rulers and called for a unity government. Perikatan Nasional did not join that government and became the principal opposition bloc, with PAS as its largest component.
Prime Minister's Office of MalaysiaKevin Zhang and Joshua Zi Wei Wan
Why did PAS and PN do so well in GE15?
There is no single agreed explanation for PAS’s and PN’s GE15 performance. Analysts variously point to Bersatu’s gains outside PAS heartlands, UMNO’s decline, PN’s social-media campaigning, PAS’s grassroots and religious networks, and support among first-time Malay-Muslim voters; Serina Rahman instead describes a longer-running shift in public Islamic practice.
Ong Kian MingSerina Rahman (ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute)Tan Sing PeiIman Research findings as reported in Malay Mail
Still open
- Who first used "gelombang hijau" or "green wave" in print, and in which outlet, remains uncertain; commentary dated 28 November 2022 does not establish that it was first.